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Author: Subject: Presidential Primaries--up to Super Tuesday Feb 6
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[*] Post 317532 posted on 22-1-2008 at 20:22 Reply With Quote
Presidential Primaries--up to Super Tuesday Feb 6



This says Huckabee's campaign is running on empty.

The senior staff has been asked to continue to work without pay, and less senior staff has had their pay lowered or positions eliminated.

They will owe $7,000,000 for the Florida campaign. If they pay that, they will have no money left to continue into Super Tuesday (when over 1000 delegates will be at stake).

The article says that some paid staffers are quitting (if they need their paychecks to feed their families, pay their utilities or mortgages, etc., how can they do otherwise?).

Gov. Huckabee spent very little money in Iowa, but he did a lot of "retail politics"--traveling around the state, speaking and meeting people.

On Super Tuesday (February 6), 21 states will hold their nomination elections ON THE SAME DAY. Candidates can't possibly cover such a vast area in person. Other than the free coverage of broadcast debates, and any free volunteers on their behalf, they must cover states by commercials--especially TV commercials (which are fairly expensive).

Candidates with significant financial support have a distinct advantage. Fred Thompson has dropped out.

McCain now appears to be the frontrunner, even with as little as 1/3 of the vote. The field is so crowded with so many other Republican candidates--Huckabee, Romney, and Guiliani, with Ron Paul draining off some votes as well--that having 2/3 of the vote go against him does not knock him out of first place.

Guiliani's plan, all along, has been to skip the early states, and concentrate on Florida and the Super Tuesday states. We won't know until Feb 6 if that worked (polls may hint otherwise, but they have not been real accurate this year).

I am inclined to think Romney has a good chance, and that he will prevail if the conservatives align behind him. But, if the conservative vote continues to be split among several candidates, McCain might win the nomination. If Huckabee manages to win several Southeran states and stays in, I think that is even more likely.:)
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[*] Post 317536 posted on 22-1-2008 at 21:09 Reply With Quote


I'm leaning toward voting for Above in the presidential primary.

As in None of the Above.

:D
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[*] Post 317541 posted on 22-1-2008 at 21:39 Reply With Quote


Here is an article to the effect that Huckabee plans to skimp in Florida.Florida is a winner-take-all state. Any money spent toward a result less than coming in first would be a waste, in terms of delegate count. However, Huckabee could still pick up a number of delegates in the Bible Belt, without having to spend much money, if he can duplicate his Iowa strategy.

I've been reading an opinion that Thompson's dropping out should make it easier for Romney, since it is one less candidate toward whom conservative votes might be split.
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